Changes in Latitude

A new online community and social network was launched today. Niche portal “Boomers Abroad” is focused on baby boomers retiring outside the USA, notably in Latin America.

The number of Americans and Canadians living abroad is approximately 7 million, twice the population of Chicago and greater than that of 33 U.S. States, according to the Washington Post. This number is expected to more than double within ten years. In the next 20 years, 100 million N. American baby boomers are going to retire. “Five million baby boomers turn age 60 each year, 10,000 per day, eight per minute, and scores of them are purchasing property abroad as vacation homes or investment homes”, according to the company’s press release dated today.

Founder Luis Miranda shares the Boomers Abroad vision, “Using the online community model, our goal is to provide the necessary information, education, guidance, resources, tools and alternatives to start boomers down the path of discovering and understanding all that living, retiring and investing abroad has to offer. Everybody learns from everybody. We understand the proven power of collaboration. It is collective wisdom.”

Explore this new community at http://www.boomersabroad.com/ Photo courtesy of Cristina Berg.

The measurement that most differentiated the USA and Canada from countries in Latin America, once upon a time, was the size and power of the middle class. As this difference continues to erode, a bit of soul searching is in order. Overall, Latin America’s middle class has grown in the past decade, while the USA’s continues to contract in size and purchasing power.

Last year I reported on the increasing tendency among the majority of Latin American countries to lean left politically. Now the USA will inaugurate its 44th president amidst its own profound shift to the left. The 2008 election was a massive rejection of trickle-down economics, a theory that led to enormous global problems for 2009 and beyond.

U.S. workers are earning less while their CEO’s have earned pay increases equivalent to more than 900% since 1970, even while bankrupting their companies. The average hourly wage rate has failed to keep up with inflation over the past four decades. In other words +900% for CEOs and +0 for workers. Source: Paul Krugman, sole 2008 recipient of the Nobel Prize in Economics.

And deregulation has enabled record-breaking corporate bankruptcy rates. The most publicized of 2008’s systematic failures occurred in the investment banking sector. This led to a trillion dollar taxpayer bailout which is now spilling over into the manufacturing sector. Add to this billions of dollars in bankruptcy filings from home-builders and media conglomerates. Consider bankrupt retailers such as Sharper Image, Mervyn’s, Linens & Things, and Circuit City.

The travel industry has been hit particularly hard with bankruptcies such as Aloha Airlines, ATA, Frontier Air, and Advantage Rental Car. In my holiday travels I have observed stunning vacancy rates at my favorite beachfront hotels.

Clearly, Henry Ford was correct to encourage corporations to pay their workers a good wage if they hope for the general public to afford their products. A free market is of little value when sellers can’t find buyers. Economic “trickle-down theory” has been proven to be of very little value, based on 38 years of stagnant hourly wages. In this context, a political shift to left is inevitable.

In 2009 the USA joins its hemispheric neighbors in embracing the enlightened self-interest of “sharing the wealth”, a necessity explained to ‘Joe the Plumber’ by then-Senator Obama. Government regulation is obviously necessary at some greater level than has been advocated by Wall Street lobbyists. We don’t have to call it socialism. We do need to recognize what we have in common with our neighbors and work together for a better tomorrow.
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In the immortal words of Hanna-Barbera’s Snagglepuss (pictured) … “Exit, stage left already!”

Add Ecuador to the growing list of nations leaning left in the Americas. Today, President Correa’s new left-leaning constitution was approved by a significant 64% margin. There are few right-leaning countries remaining in our hemisphere and Latin America is merely a microcosm of the global liberal/conservative contest.

In colonial times, the fear over liberalization was derived from fear by the ruling elite over sharing the land, wealth, and power they amassed through conquest and slavery. They chose to conserve their land, wealth & power, so they were conservative. Those seeking balance, retribution, fairness, (you decide) were liberal in their approach. The 21st Century finds Presidents Correa (Ecuador), Chavez (Venuzuela), Morales (Bolivia), Garcia (Peru) and Lula (Brazil), among others, liberalizing their countries.

A similar battle is waging in the USA today. Instead of colonizers, the right now represents U.S. corporations such as Bear Stearns, AIG, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. The CEO’s of the nine major banks that taxpayers now partially own were paid $32.2 million last year, on average. On the retail end, we’ve seen similar gluttony. Global colonizers such as Wal-Mart entice young people from all over China to leave their family farms to slave in squalor in company-owned factories producing plastic gimcracks for voracious consumers, in the name of monopolistic ambitions, profit, and cheap consumer crap.

Consumer culture – isn’t this a crime against nature?

Regardless, corporations are paying billions to their leaders and shareholders, such as the Walton family, while a generation of indigenous peoples move away from their fields to barely subsist in polluted cities working for Fortune 100 companies producing unneccesary consumables. Whether it’s a Nike sweatshop in Asia or a garment sweatshop in Latin America, CEO’s are making hundreds times more than the workers.

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Why grow food when you choke the planet in cheap plastic toys for “happy meals”? The children who throw away today’s toy tomorrow do not realize its half-life is 5000 years. This is the modern day conquest – pillaging once peaceful agrarian societies of their way of life to line the bank accounts of multinational corporate executives. The consequences are not tangibly different from colonization that occured centuries ago through slavery.

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In this context, it is not hard to understand backlash against capitalism. “We need to reintroduce morality into capitalism” – Nicolas Sarkozy, President of France.

The USA is set to join the leftist movement next month by inaugarating a liberal to the White House on promises of increased regulation and an economy that works for people as well corporations. The U.S. Congress is already leaning left. Obama shuns lobbyist contributions and special interest money. His average contribution is $86 and he’s received such donations from over 3 million voters. If you are surprised by this, read on.

There are three reasons our hemisphere continues to lean left, according to the book “Utopia Unarmed: The Latin American Left”:

1. The end of the Cold War removed the stigma of the left. The USA could no longer label leftist governments ‘communist sympathizers’.

2. Latin America’s extreme concentration of wealth, income, power, and opportunity (among two percent of the population) meant that it would have to be governed from the left. “The combination of inequality and democracy tends to cause a movement to the left everywhere. Impoverished masses (98% in much of Latin America) vote for the type of policies that, they hope, will make them less poor.” – Jorge Castaneda

3. Real democracy will naturally lead to victories for the left. Wealth cannot be unfairly concentrated among those who must seek reelection in a land of fair elections, unless the rising tide truly does raise all ships or the voters can be duped. Voters like “Joe the plumber” are often duped into voting against their best interests by narcissists seeking the throne (versus seeking to serve).

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For example, McCain keeps calling Obama a socialist, saying he wants to redistrubute wealth with his tax policies. This is either an attempt to dupe the voting public, or evidence of how little McCain understands the progressive income tax was introduced 95 years ago. Wealthy people have higher tax rates; poor people benefit from government programs while paying little to no tax. If we want to talk about socialist actions, Paul Volcker asks “How do we reprivatize institutions” that have been “socialized” by the Bush administration?

In this context, it is no surprise that corporate greed unveiled results in the masses saying “no” to conservative party staples such as obscene wage multiples for CEO’s who create huge taxpayer debts in their bonfire of the vanities. Anyone surprised by Obama’s popularity needs a refresher course in cultural anthropology. Everyone else already knows why the hemishpere is leaning left… we are so much more than consumers and too many corporations are acting like conquering colonists instead of good citizens.

The balance of power in the Americas has been shifting for more than a decade. N. America’s clout in C. & S. America is at its lowest point in decades of decline. The dollar still goes further when it goes south. However, the USA’s economic meltdown has led to the raising of Latin American eyebrows. For decades we have preached about financial austerity measures. Our neighbors now question the value of economic advice from an economy reeling wildly out of control.

South, Central & North America have each had their share of revolution and civil wars since the 18th Century. Recently, unrest in Latin America has been too often instigated by the USA. Who can name one major Latin American country where the U.S. government did not meddle, finance opposition governments, send covert operatives, or otherwise intervene in affairs outside our borders? We’ve been a bully with our neighbors, in too many cases. The Bush Doctine of overt pre-emption is just a new twist on a long history of covert pre-emptive actions.

Congress continues to fund intervention in Latin America in its unwinnable “war on drugs”. Yet, the current administration can’t even take care of domestic problems and is running up record deficits. We are overextended and in debt to foreign governments, which was once the norm in Latin America. Our neighbors see the USA as increasingly unreliable and, when it comes to advice about their financial markets, they see the U.S. position as hypocritical.

How does this effect tourism? First of all, we must go beyond the U.S. State Dept. to get a useful travel advisory. Visiting host country’s websites is quite helpful. For objective advice in English, visit websites from the governments of Canada, the UK, and Australia. We do this for our clients. We find our own State Dept’s information to be the least useful, the most biased, its not geographically specific, and its not updated frequently enough.

In my work, we don’t rely on vague State Dept. advisories. We prefer detailed, up-to-date analysis on protests or conflicts taking place in Latin America. We prefer pertinent details and nuanced analysis. The U.S. State Dept. plays politics with travel advisories, knowing that tourism is a key revenue source for rival leftist governments in Latin America. Do we have a problem with peaceful protests of misguided government policies here or there? Not necessarily. Does the State Dept. use objections about a government’s policies to overstate a travel advisory? Yes.

The result of this hemispheric shift is positive for tourists. North, Central & South Americans are becoming closer neighbors on economic terms. We have a shrinking middle class. We’re engaged in nasty wars. Our economies are crippled. We’re facing the same struggles and this brings people together. The current administration’s misguided policies have eroded our economic standing in the world. We’re slipping from the “1st world” to the 2nd as Latin America has been reaching up from “3rd world” to the 2nd. We’re meeting our neighbors in the middle, slowly but surely.

The poverty rate in Mexico has dropped from 21 percent to 18.5 percent over the past 10 years, said a report published by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The poverty rates in Turkey are 17.5 percent and in the United States 17 percent. Denmark and Sweden are with less inequality with only 5.5 percent of poor people. Out of dozens of countries in the OECD study, only Turkey and Mexico have more poverty to the USA. We are not even close to the top of the list on this measure because too many of U.S. workers earn less than half the median wage – a two class system is growing and the middle class is shrinking. Denmark and Sweden are 1st world countries. The USA and Turkey have the same levels of poverty, a level very close to Mexico’s.

Approach the USA’s 2nd world reality frankly, with humility, and you’ll make many friends when traveling. Increasingly, we’re in the same boat and it may be a banana boat. According to Micheal Shifter, an Inter-American Dialogue Analyst in DC, “Latin Americans have every reason to view the U.S. as a banana republic. U.S. lectures to Latin Americans about excess greed and lack of accountability have long rung hollow, but today they sound even more ridiculous.”

Bush has the lowest ranking of any U.S. President in the history of polling. In Latin America, his poll numbers are as low as Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez and Cuba’s Fidel Castro, places where people have little control over their own lives and where the middle class is nonexistent. What lesson will we take from this emerging reality?

The USA has done much good in the hemisphere, and more than a little harm. Now, more than ever, it is time to work together with our neighbors for a better future, and treat them the way we would like to be treated. For a related report, see the one below about Argentina…

Argentina is implementing new fees and visa application rules for foreign visitors for the New Year. The Interior Minister is responding to a perceived act of injustice since his countrymen pay $134 to enter the USA. Florencio Randazzo said the new fee applies to visitors from 22 countries charging fees to Argentines, adding “This is an act of justice. The fee is reciprocal; it is not restrictive in nature, not at all”.

The new fees will generate $40 million annually. Austrialia, Canada, the UK and many EU countries are being targeted. Randazzo said “the world is showing an increasingly negative attitude toward migration”. Brazil, Bolivia and Chile have implemented such policies. $134 USD is a much greater expense for Argentines than it is for citizens of more westernized economies.

It’s as if the world’s citizens have been playing a game of ‘musical chairs’ for many centuries. Now, the music is about to stop. Hurry up, sit down. Fight for the last chair. Left out? You lose the game.

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This blogger is nomadic. Many people are, by nature, nomadic. There must be coooperation among neighboring countries to drop the fees and the travel visa bureacracy. Immigration rules must be reformed to make the process more transparent and expedient.

“The United States become notorious during the 20th century for backing brutal dictators under the guise of preventing a communist takeover of Latin America. Past military interventions in Guatemala, Nicaragua, Panama, and elsewhere, and support of repressive regimes like that of Augusto Pinochet in Chile have made Latin Americans skeptical of U.S. motives. More recently, U.S. policy toward the region has focused on two issues: drugs and free trade. Both policies have harmed the economic and political lives of the region.

Today, Latin America is undergoing a transformation as indigenous and social movements are rising up and demanding a say about the future. Elected leaders in Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Venezuela, and to varying degrees, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay are asserting themselves as symbols of an independent and even defiant Latin America. And votes in those countries are overwhelmingly backing them.

So how should the United States respond? A successful policy begins with respect. The U.S. should give the elected governments the space to succeed rather than flooding discredited opposition movements with aid in an attempt to influence elections and undermine governments as they are doing in Bolivia and Venezuela.

Respect can be shown also through abandoning our insistence on so-called “free” trade policies, which favor transnational corporations over the environment and the rights of workers. Instead, we can join the region’s move toward fair trade policies that support sustainable development in poor countries and protect small farmers from unfettered competition with heavily subsidized agribusiness. Our trade policies should be based on the idea that our hemisphere is more secure when all peoples can develop diversified economies that meet local needs first, and raise people out of poverty and hopelessness. Strong local economies would also reduce pressure on poor people to migrate, easing much of the illegal immigration in the United States.

Respect can be extended by ending the senseless war on coca farmers, which has fueled conflict and human rights abuses. Instead, we could help countries deal with drug trafficking, money laundering, and other organized crime through good policing – if they request the help.”

The time has passed for heavy-handed interventionist policy, especially in our own hemisphere. Read more from Nadia Martinez about What the Rise of Democratic Movements in Latin America Means for the Rest of the World.

Unfortunately the Chilean avocado crop is down 50% due to a hard freeze in July. This paves the way for Mexico to dramatically increase it’s exports to the U.S. Until a few years ago, San Diego County’s grower’s associations were effective in blocking Mexico’s crop through bogus claims of fruit fly issues. The real issue was always the grower’s (largely doctors & lawyers) desire to make a killing over-charging for their products in the absence of competition.

There was a similar move by mango growers in Florida to block Mexican mangos from entering the U.S. They didn’t want to see consumers enjoy a superior product for a reasonable price, because they couldn’t compete. Japan, the masters of incoming quality control processes, repeatedely testified to the U.S. Congress about the absence of any fruit fly issues. Finally the tariffs and restrictions on Mexican mangos and avocados have been lifted. This year, for the first time in 100 years, Mexican avocado growers can ship their product throughout the U.S., even to California.

The earliest record of avocados comes from Peru. A mummy from 800 BC was uncovered with avocado seeds. They were most likely buried with the dead due to aphrodisiac qualities that could prove useful in the afterlife. The Aztec word for avocado is Ahuacuatl meaning testicle tree. Note the fruit of the tree hangs in pairs. Cortez conquered Mexico in 1519 to find avocados everywhere. Today, the state of Michoacan is the avocado capital of the Americas.

Not until 1926 did Mr. Hass discovered the avocado that bears his name. Today there are more than 40,000 acres of avocados in California, over 60% in San Diego County. Before the fire, California had been expected to harvest 338 million pounds this season, according to the Hass Avocado Board.

Chile would have shipped 260 million pounds to the U.S. but July’s freeze will limit Chile’s exports to about half that amount. Chile’s avocados often have more oil than California’s, making for a smoother texture. Chilean avocados are grown in the Central Valley, mainly between Petorca and Rancagua. But the transit distance to the U.S. is not easy of this delicate fruit.

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Mexico is now expected to ship 425 million pounds this year, a 24% increase over last year’s exports. Both avocado and mango consumption have tripled in the U.S. in the past 10 years, and the best place to grow these tropical delights is “south of the border” … for quality, yield, and price.

Yes, I’m a travel consultant now, but it’s fun to keep my pulse on the tropical fruit industry I knew so well during one magical decade of my youth.

Ciao! Mango Steve